AA/WARC: UK ad market to reach £36bn but growth will slow
The latest AA/WARC Ad Expenditure report shows that the UK ad market continued to recover in Q3 2022, but growth is expected to slow due to economic...
Learn morePosted on: Thursday 27 April 2023 | IAB UK
The latest Advertising Association / WARC Expenditure Report shows that, after a strong start, H2 2022 was challenging for the UK’s ad market
Actual figures released by the Advertising Association/WARC for the full year in 2022 confirm that spend was up by 8.8%, with the total figure standing at £34.8bn, but the momentum from a strong start to the year was seen to wane in latter months. Total UK ad spend growth in the first half of 2022 has been upwardly revised to 26.0%, while the total ad market contracted by 5.7% in the second half of the year.
2023 projections have been downgraded from the previous forecast (published in January 2023) to +0.5% - compared to +3.8% in January - due to signs that the downturn recorded in the latter half of 2022 has continued into the first half of 2023. Forecasts for the coming year show reduced growth expectations for nearly all sectors of advertising with the economic headwinds of high inflation, muted growth and talent shortages being felt across the industry. Spend is expected to reach £35.0bn in 2023, before a 3.9% rise in 2024 to £36.3bn. See the table below for channel specific forecasts.
Commenting on the latest data, Stephen Woodford, Chief Executive of the Advertising Association, said: “These figures reflect the broader macro-economic environment, with a cautious outlook as the UK economy narrowly avoids recession, but shows very little signs of real growth. Advertising investment is an important barometer of business performance and confidence in the economic outlook. It drives competition and innovation, supporting job creation and livelihoods, returning a ration of £1 invested generating £6 of GDP."
The latest AA/WARC report follows IAB UK’s Digital Adspend report 2022, which showed the digital ad market outpaced predictions last year to grow 11%, reaching £26.1bn. Find out more about Digital Adspend here.
AA / WARC Expenditure Report data
Media |
2021 |
2022 |
2022 % change |
2023 forecast year-on-year % change |
2024 forecast year-on-year % change |
Search |
11,658.6 |
13,143.8 |
12.7% |
1.7% |
5.2% |
Online display* |
10,790.1 |
11,867.8 |
10.0% |
1.7% |
5.3% |
TV |
5,458.0 |
5,381.0 |
-1.4% |
-2.0% |
1.6% |
of which BVOD |
732.8 |
845.3 |
15.4% |
2.5% |
3.6% |
Online classified* |
1,053.4 |
1,110.8 |
5.4% |
-7.5% |
-2.7% |
Direct mail |
1,082.0 |
1,095.0 |
1.2% |
-6.0% |
-4.0% |
Out of home |
901.3 |
1,181.2 |
31.1% |
4.9% |
5.9% |
of which digital |
576.8 |
749.9 |
30.0% |
6.0% |
7.1% |
National newsbrands |
844.9 |
826.3 |
-2.2% |
-5.2% |
-3.0% |
of which online |
367.4 |
375.6 |
2.2% |
1.0% |
2.3% |
Radio |
720.1 |
740.1 |
2.8% |
-1.6% |
0.8% |
of which online |
72.7 |
77.7 |
6.9% |
2.7% |
4.1% |
Regional newsbrands |
510.5 |
505.2 |
-1.0% |
-5.8% |
-4.9% |
of which online |
250.9 |
259.2 |
3.3% |
-0.8% |
0.7% |
Magazine brands |
556.4 |
552.1 |
-0.8% |
-3.2% |
-2.6% |
of which online |
297.7 |
302.2 |
1.5% |
0.9% |
1.6% |
Cinema |
102.8 |
229.3 |
123.0% |
37.2% |
13.0% |
TOTAL UK ADSPEND |
31,956.5 |
34,772.1 |
8.8% |
0.5% |
3.9% |
Note: Broadcaster VOD, digital revenues for newsbrands, magazine brands, and radio station websites are also included within online display and classified totals, so care should be taken to avoid double counting. Online radio includes targeted in-stream radio/audio advertising sold by UK commercial radio companies, together with online S&P inventory. |
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